(London Composite Electric) A think tank in the UK pointed out that the Ukrainian war may trigger another supply chain crisis, which has led to a decrease in global GDP (GDP) reduced $ 1 trillion (about S $ 1.36 trillion)This year's global inflation rate increased by three percentage points.
The National Institute of Economics and Social Sciences (Niesr), located in London, said that the supply problem will slow down growth and push prices, and the global GDP will be reduced by 1 % next year.
Niesr pointed out that Russia and Ukraine are the main sources of supply and energy in European commodities and energy, and Europe will therefore be more vulnerable to the Russian and Ukraine War than other regions;The influx of refugees and the strengthening of their national army.
It calls on central banks of various countries to raise interest rates slowly, while evaluating the impact of the Russian and Ukraine War on market confidence and economic activities, and estimating the squeezing of actual income on energy costs.
Director Chada, Director of Niesr, said: "The Russian conflict brings more pressure on the economic system that has been impacted by the crown disease ... The supply chain will further break, and monetary policy and fiscal policy will be tested."
Niesr believes that Russia will be able to avoid economic recession because the economic blow caused by sanctions on Russia will be" partially offset due to natural gas and oil export prices ", but by the end of next yearThe prediction is 2.6 %, and the plunge of the ruble will lead to Russia's inflation rate as high as 20 %.
Niesr said that Russia's GDP has only been slightly more serious than the euro zone and the United Kingdom; by the end of next year, the euro zone and British GDP will be about 1.5 percentage points lower than the previous forecasts.At the same time, living expenses will rise further, the average inflation rate in Britain this year will reach 7 %, and it may drop to 4.4 % next year.
If the sanctions against Russia have risen further to cutting off Russia's natural gas and oil exports, not only Russia will be severely hit, the EU's "possibility of economic recession accompanied by inflation and soaring" will also increase because the EU natural gas supply 40% Come from Russia.
Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, issued a half -year monetary policy report to the House of Representatives Financial Service Committee on Wednesday that the impact of Ukraine conflicts on the US economy is still "highly uncertain".Make sure the economic recovery after the epidemic can continue.
The US price is rising at the fastest speed in 40 years, and oil prices have soared to more than $ 110 per barrel due to the Ukrainian war.Powell reiterated that policy decision makers have been prepared to raise interest rates to suppress inflation, but he emphasized that the central bank will "act carefully."
Some officials of the Federal Reserve advocated that the conference held on the 15th and 16th of this month was greaterly raised interest rates and raised interest rates 50 basis points.However, Powell rarely bluntly stated: "I tend to suggest and support 25 basis points in interest rate hikes."
Some economists have pointed out that oil prices continue to increase their inflation, while sanctions on Russia and other other Russian sanctions and othersThe overflowing effect may slow down the economic recovery.
Powell pointed out that if inflation is intensified or continued to stay high, the Fed "is preparing to take more decisive actions and raise interest rates at more than 25 basis points at one or multiple meetings."
In 2020, the Federal Reserve's urgent interest rate cut to alleviate the impact of the economy on the economy.Nowadays, the market is generally determined that as the economic recovery is expected to be strong, the current lending cost level has not coordinated with economic performance.
