Reporter/Peng Danni

Recently, Liu Shan, a viralist who worked in the United States, notified to everyone at the university medical school where the hospital has ushered in the highest number of hospitalizations since the new crown epidemic.To be paused or postponed.

Liu Shanxuan is the director of the Ohio State University Virus and New onset Primary Research Project. He cooperates with his scientists and doctors. His surrounding laboratory colleagues and staff have already infected with the new crown virus Omikon mutant strains.An American Chinese described it so: If you haven't heard of any friend infected, then you can only show that you have no friends in the United States.

Under the blessing of the Christmas and New Year's doubles, after more than a month of spread, the proportion of newly added infected people in the United States has soared from 1 % to 95.4 % in the United States.Delta for half a year.On January 3rd, the number of new infections in the United States exceeded 1 million on that day, creating the highest daily statistics of all countries in the world since the new crowns became popular.

Not only in the United States, in many countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Australia, etc., the impact of Omikon has made them facing the worst popularity since the new crown epidemic, and the number of new cases has exponentially increased.As of January 7, Omikon has been detected in 138 countries and regions around the world.

The Director -General of the WHO Tan Desai said that the case of new crown virus infection caused by the variant of Omeck Rong has been in the trend of tsunami.The sanitary system on the edge of collapse brought tremendous pressure and disrupted people's lives and livelihood again.

In this strong posture, the new crown virus began to enter its popular third year.People can't see any signs of the epidemic, but this time, there are some views that Omikon is the booster of the end of the big popularity, but is the situation really so optimistic?

The group level crisis is greater than the risk of personal health

A Chinese living in Paris wrote that during the infection (Omikon), I did not have a fever or the loss of taste and smell.On the contrary, I was like a long cold, headache, fatigue, cough, sore limbs, stuffy nose, and dizziness.The friends who were infected with me, because I took a enhanced needle, the symptoms were shorter than me, but it was completely okay for three or four days after a little cough.

Whether it is because of the characteristics of the virus itself or the role of vaccine, Omikon's symptoms are mild and the severity rate is low, and clinicians generally feel this.In New York, one of the epicenters of the American epidemic, Lahul Middot, Chief Physician of the Emergency Hospital of the Presbyterian Hospital; Charma said that the number of inpatients is increasing, but there are far less patients who enter the intensive care unit or need to be interspersed.In the outbreak, most infected people who came to the emergency room were soon discharged.

The number of new -crowns in the United States has exceeded historical records.On January 10, a total of 1,32,646 people in the United States were hospitalized due to the new crown virus, exceeding the peak of 132051 last year.

In many countries and regions, the number of new crowns infected has not caused the same proportion of hospitalization and mortality to increase significantly.At the end of 2021, the number of new cases in London in London was almost twice the peak period of the same year, but the number of admission and the number of use of the ventilator was only 50 % and 20 % at that time.Maintain smooth.At present, the British new crown vaccination rate has reached 80 %, and the three -pin vaccination rate exceeds 50 %.

However, even if the health group is mild or asymptomatic after the symptoms of Omikon, the virus can still spread to more vulnerable people, including the elderly, people with basic diseases or immunity defects, etc., should not be taken lightly.This is a simple mathematical problem. Some epidemiological experts point out that assuming that Omikon's dissemination ability is four times that of Delta, but the pathogenicity is half of Delta, so the number of residents will still double.

The number of infections caused by Omikon is too large, far exceeding the previous waves of epidemic.The Institute of Health Statistics (IHME) at the University of Washington, the University of Washington, conducted a model prediction based on the epidemiological characteristics of Omikon: from January 1, 2022 to March 1, the United States may have 140 million new infections.The peak period will appear in late January, and the peak infection can reach 2.8 million daily infection.This number means that the number of infections in the next three months is equivalent to the total number of infections in the United States in the past two years.

Zhang Zhaqiao, a senior professor of epidemiology at the University of California, Los Angeles, reminded that Omikon may be mild in young people, and people are in severe illnesses in old age, weak, and high -risk people.Needle.

A general worry is that the threat brought by Omikon may be more at the group level.Because the Delta epidemic has affected many countries, most countries' medical systems have reached the limit, medical staff is exhausted, and Omikon's ultra -high spread is enough to seriously impact the medical system.

Liu Jigao is the president of the American Asian Medical Association and a doctor of a private clinic in New York City.According to the situation he learned, although the intensive care unit of some local hospitals is not as full as the early stage of the epidemic, patients in ordinary ward are increasing, and the usage rate of beds has increased from 70 % to 90 % to 95 %.More importantly, because the current infection rate is too high, 10 % to 15 % of medical staff is isolated due to infection. The hospital cannot operate all staff, and the hospital is likely to be explosive at any time.

In order to cope with the surging patients, the British National Medical Service (NHS) has announced its entry into war on December 30, 2021, and plans to restore the Nander Temporary Hospital to respond to Omikon, which may be out of the hospital in the future.The NHS also plans to transform facilities and educational centers in multiple locations across the country into temporary treatment places, providing a total of about 4,000 temporary beds.The British Department of Defense said on January 7 that 200 armed forces have been provided to support NHS in the next three weeks.

On December 21, 2021, in Hampson Park, England, people were lined up in vaccination.Figure/Visual China

Ashamed that the seemingly gentle Omir Rong's spread in human society has brought about the chaos that far beyond the medical system.In countries with a high infection rate, the influence of Omikon is now appearing in all walks of life.Taking the aviation industry as an example, on January 7th, there were 2,300 flights in the United States due to employee infection and insufficient manpower; on the same day, Canada West Porsche Airlines notified that the reduction of passengers brought by epidemic prevention and absence of personnel, to the absence of the personnel.Before January 31, 15 % of flights will be canceled.

On January 2nd, the British government said in a statement that because the number of daily infections reached a record high, and those with positive testing results need to be separated by themselves for at least 7 days.EssenceThe statement mentioned that so far, Omikon's damage caused by the public health department has been controlled in most areas, but the leaders of the public sector have been required to lack 10 %, 20 %, and 25 % of the worst cases of lack of labor.Draw a plan.

Tightened moderately

In order to reduce the impact of Ormico's impact on social life, most developed countries have adopted different degrees of epidemic prevention measures.Their common characteristics are to use appropriate degree of public health measures to reduce the speed of communication of Omikon, delay the crowding caused by the medical system, and exchange time to understand the viral characteristics and improve the vaccination rate.

But it seems that the measures of various countries are different.If the degree of control is regarded as a spectral diagram from loose to tightness, it is a synthesis of its vaccine vaccination rate, medical system pressure ability, political system, and social culture.

After Christmas, Germany began to introduce some tightening policies. From December 28, 2021, infected people who have been vaccinated or recovered, private gatherings are limited to up to 10 people. For those who have not vaccinated vaccines, eachThe family allows up to two visitors at most.On January 7, the measures were upgraded again. Entering restaurants and bars need to show the inoculation of enhanced needle certificates, or the basic vaccination+nucleic acid negative report.

Lu Mengji, a professor at the University of Essen, a German virusist and a professor at Essen University, explained that the German vaccination rate has not yet reached expectations.Almost only 71 % of the population complete two doses, and 38 % of the population vaccinated the enhanced needle.In Europe, vaccination rate is the most important basis for control. In contrast, Britain, Spain, Portugal, France and other countries are now higher.

France is the country with the largest number of new cases in Europe.Following the Christmas day, French new cases exceeded 100,000, and reached a new high on January 8, close to 300,000 cases.In view of this, France announced a series of measures on December 27, 2021, but there was no curfitude in New Year's Eve. Then, the start day on January 3, French students returned to school as usual.The government's confidence comes from the country's 90 % of the people who meet the conditions of vaccination have completed the vaccination. Now the French people are the best protected crowd in the world.

The Netherlands is the first country in Europe to take comprehensive blockade measures.On December 18, 2021, the government announced that the measures that have been taken are not enough to ensure that the pressure of the medical system is still within the controllable range. Therefore, the Netherlands will enter the blockade state from December 19, at least until 2022 to 2022On January 14, the measures include people try to stay at home. There are no more than two family visitors daily, and the educational institution is closed until January 9 and so on.

According to European independent media analysis, the Netherlands is not willing to wear masks like Spain, nor the abundant ventilator of Belgium, no Denmark's powerful virus detection and monitoring system, no Italian obligation immunization plan, nor Hellip in the small classroom of Finland schools,Hello; so, only strictly blocked.And the enhanced vaccination rate is 31 %, which is only medium in Europe.

Liu Jigao recalled that during Christmas, the crowd of the crowd in the lively streets of Manhattan, New York, watched the shoulders and did not keep social distance.When the United States continued to open, Canada, also in North America, was blocking the blockade.In Ontario, Canada, restaurants, concert halls and gyms have been closed. The school has changed to long -range teaching and stopped non -emergency surgery. Quebec provides for 10 nights in the evening and prohibits people from worshiping the church.Receive hellip; hellip;

Different attitudes towards Omikon originated from the differences between the United States and Canada in terms of medical resources and treatment systems.Taking the most populous Federal province Ontario as an example, the latest official data shows that each 800 residents of the province have a ICU or acute care bed, and this proportion of New York is 420: 1.

Some senior health officials in Canada also emphasized that in terms of social psychology, Canadians have more trust in the government, and the tolerance of death and severe illness brought by the new crown virus is also lower than that of the United States.David Middot, the former president of the University of Toronto, Canada, who had commanded the Canadian SARS epidemic prevention; Neille did not understand that with the powerful scientific and medical strength of the United States, the US performance in the new crown epidemic in protecting citizens from infection and death.Can't say it at all.

The continuous release is the mainstream

A biomedical industry employee working in Maryland, USA shared that some time ago, the company basically reported new crown positive every day. At the beginning, everyone was nervous and was deeply disinfected and cleaned.Now that there are more positive employees, it is impossible to keep this all the time, otherwise the company has to close it for several months.Now the countermeasures are that they go home to rest, and other employees work as usual.Now that positive employees have recovered back to work, they are basically mild. Everyone does not matter and is not afraid. It is only used to use the virus to make vaccines to enhance the needle.

Ormico, which came like a tide, is due to its serious interference in social operations or people's psychological weakness and abandonment, which has impacted public security measures such as standardized flow tracking, isolation, and testing.Not only is it a company, at the policy level, for pragmatic considerations, in many European and American countries, such efforts to control the infection to the greatest extent are gradually abandoning.

In the second week of December 2021, the US CDC (CDC) updated the guide. It is suggested that people can be reduced to 5 days after the diagnosis of the new crown, not the original 10 to 14 days.If there are no symptoms, or the symptoms have improved or disappeared significantly after 5 days, the patient can relieve the isolation by themselves without reviewing the nucleic acid detection, but you should still wear a mask when contacting others.

At least countries including Israel, Canada, the United Kingdom, Italy, Australia, Portugal, etc. have recently announced that they have recently announced that the tracking scope of the densely connected persons will shorten the infertility to 5-7 days.The sudden adjustment of this policy aroused some people's indignation. Some people believe that this is the consideration of commercial and political considerations above public health.

In this regard, the US CDC director Roseel Middot; Valenceki explained that based on the past understanding of respiratory infectious diseases and new coronal viruses, 85 % ~ 90 % of the transmission occurred in the first 5 days after the infection virus, and after that, thenThe risk of communication is greatly reduced.People may be able to detect positive results within the highest length of up to 12 weeks after infection, but the infectiousness in the later period has been greatly reduced, so the significance of nucleic acid re -examination is not significant.

This regulation allows many people who areolated from infection, especially public service departments, such as medical workers, can return to their posts as soon as possible to maintain the normal operation of society.Of course, this is not the most secure policy.Liu Jigao said that some people stayed at home for a few days at home, and they did not necessarily meet the time requirements. They could not know if they were still carrying viruses after contacting the isolation.But this is not only a medical decision, but also more social situations such as balance economy and employment.

Compatible with the goal of shortening the isolation period, the United Kingdom stipulates that starting from January 11, the use of LFT (testing antigen detection) quickly detects new crown -positive but without symptoms.isolation.This decision will greatly save time waiting for the test results, and also shorten the isolation time of the infected person to a certain extent.The sensitivity period of the LFT fast inspection is a period of high virus load and infectious periods, which means that the government no longer finds non -incomplete carrier -oriented incomplete carriers with latent periods or infection.

A few months ago, as Singapore, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand and other countries, Australia is also a country that aims to achieve the target of zero infection, that is, to keep daily new cases at a very low level through isolation of entry personnel and large -scale nucleic acid testingEssence

In August 2021, Australia released a national plan to transform the new crown, and officially transformed the focus of epidemic prevention and control from inhibiting community communication to preventing hospitalization, severe illnesses, and death.After that, the Australian vaccination was rushed to catch up. By the end of December, the vaccination rate had reached 79 %.

In response to Omikon, Australia's strategy was tightened for a while, re -asked to wear masks in the room to accelerate vaccination vaccination, but only one week later, on December 30, 2021, the government announced that the country's government will reduce testing and tracking.The importance of public health methods such as isolation will no longer perform detailed flow, only tracking the family of the infected person. At the same time, regardless of the vaccine vaccination status, it is recommended to be separated for 7 days until the detection result is negative on the 6th day.This is because the Ministry of Health of the country said that in a high -infectious environment, these measures are no longer effective, and the government -level public health should focus on the highest risk, and daily management will rely more on personal participation.

From December 26, 2021, the Ministry of Health of Singapore has also adjusted measures to deal with Omikon, greatly relaxing some measures, and coexisting with the virus in the epidemic.

Singapore is a small country that needs to maintain the flow of overseas personnel and goods. The border blockade is unrealistic here.Gu Abie, deputy dean and associate professor of the Singapore National University of Public Health, Singapore, wrote in the email of China News Weekly.He explained that due to the high vaccination rate of Singapore's vaccination and the continuous expansion of needle coverage rate, the risk of infection with new crowns has now dropped to a lower level, which is closer to flu, instead of the new crown in 2020.Economic and social strict measures are meaningless.

This consideration in Singapore is also the reason why many countries have adjusted epidemic prevention strategies.On January 5th, France, which was the most popular in Omiko, Europe, promulgated a new regulation that allowed infected people with mild or mild symptoms to continue on duty without any self -isolation.Two days later, Germany also finally decided to strictly abide by the regulations of the WHO. The secrets of the new crown infected persons will no longer need to be vaccinated or recovered in the past 3 months, and they will no longer need to needisolation.If other people have no symptoms or symptoms, they can end after 10 daysIsolation; if the test results are negative, it can be shortened to 7 days.

In the future, if you don't get sick, you will continue to work as long as you don't get sick.Otherwise, the entire government agencies, even less than those, are paralyzed because of the large number of people infected.Lu Mengji said that the epidemic forced the whole society to move towards a more open model, and should not be stubbornly guarding outdated strategies.

In this regard, it is South Africa.The earliest report of Omikon, announced on December 24, 2021 that it will no longer track and isolate the detection but asymptomatic Omiro infected persons, as long as they wear masks and maintain social distance.The government said that if the policy is not adjusted, many people are required to stay at home without symptoms. Children who have no income and contact those infected with the new crown have lost their valuable learning opportunities.Therefore, the South African Expert Committee focuses on the immunization plan, rather than tracking and isolation measures.

On December 30, 2021, South Africa announced that the country has passed the fourth wave of epidemic situation brought by Omikon, and the number of deaths has not increased significantly.Relax, but we need to wear a mask indoor.

Conditions are coexisting with the virus

Human expectations for the end of the epidemic have been repeatedly delayed.In the spring of 2021, there was an optimistic emotion.At that time, a large wave of new crown vaccines were approved, and two of the MRNA vaccines were highly hoped for as high as 90 % of their protection.It is expected that when 70 % to 90 % of the world ’s population is vaccinated, they can establish a barrier to group immunity to end the epidemic.

However, the evolution of viruses, uneven vaccine distribution in the world, and the gradual weakening of the vaccine people have gradually weakened, making this hope gradually shatter.A new consensus is that the virus may still maintain a certain level of dissemination after the third pinrse in the future.

Even in the population of the vaccine, just like Singapore, Gu Abie said that once it is restored, there will still be a large number of communities.Therefore, this can get an experience. In the past, the country where the new crown virus was transmitted or cleared in the past, when communicating with the public, it is necessary to carefully propose this to avoid the public's wrong expectations.

Since the popularity of the new crown virus, its ultra -high contagiousness is destined to not disappear like SARS virus.Gu Abie said.

When Ormico breaks the possibility of removing the virus, some public health experts believe that its irreplaceable popularity will be conducive to the end of the epidemic according to the current momentum.For example, Tyra Grove Krause, chief epidemiologist of the Danish National Serum Institute, said that we may be experiencing the last wave of popularity because Omikon's infection can bring high -level group immunity.

In an interview with China News and Weekly, a professor at the School of Public Health of the University of Hong Kong and an honorary academician of the British School of Public Health said that he believes that most countries will consider ending the epidemic in 3 to 6 months.In a case, they will no longer perform any further restrictions on people's behavior.In order to control the epidemic, the government will rely on effective vaccine and antiviral drugs, and no longer use public health and social measures.

More and more infectious disease experts and virusists believe that the end of the new crown epidemic is not because the spread of the virus itself is controlled, but a social declaration: stop regarding it as a big popularity and treating other humans like other humans.Coronatte virus and other seasonal respiratory infections accept it.

But can only rely on vaccine vaccination and a higher degree of immunity caused by natural infections, can it bring the world into a reasonable and balanced state of coexistence with the virus?the answer is negative.

On January 3rd, a group of public health experts and scholars from the famous British universities and scientific research institutions published an open letter in the British Medical Journal.The letter pointed out that the immune protection brought by the vaccine is not permanent, and the high infection rate environment will also accelerate the evolution and mutation of the virus.This strategy will cause a vicious cycle: important public health measures such as detection, tracking, and isolation become inefficient and useless due to overwhelming, which will further lose in the battlefield where virus transmission.

In a country that spreads like wildfires, the epidemic has clearly brought the consequences of death, economic loss, and shortage of medical staff.At the crowd level, the vaccine has greatly reduced the hospitalization and mortality rate, but for everyone, the affected livelihood, the disrupted school plan, the long -term sequelae that may be left after infection, etc.s damage.

In view of this, the aforementioned British scholars' public letter initiative, the epidemic prevention of various countries must shift from the only vaccine to the vaccine, which includes the use of high protective masks, attaches more attention to ventilation and air replacement systems.The quantitative standards of measures have contributed to the fair measures of global vaccine.

Coincidentally, on January 6, the six health consultants during the transition period of the Biden government in the United States, including the former chief scientist of the United States FDA, Luxianna Middot; Borio, George Middot; Professor Middot, Professor of Public Health College of Washington University;People have published three articles in the American Medical Association magazine, calling on the United States to adopt a new national policy to enter the new normal with the virus without expecting to eliminate it.

Unlike the concepts of unconditional and virus that prevailed during Delta's popular period, Lu Xi'anna Middot; Borio and others believe that the United States needs to manage the new coronary virus as a respiratory virus and clarify the critical value of the maximum risk.Once exceeded the critical value, the policy interference and slowing downBehavior, the health system also adjusts the corresponding number of beds and staffing.

Refer to the relevant data of the American influenza and respiratory tract sympathetic virus (RSV) from 2017 to 2018. They calculated that in the worst week of the respiratory virus epidemic season, the peak of risk to tolerate was about 35,000 inpatient patients and 3,000 deaths.As a measured ruler, the number of hospitalizations and deaths brought by the new crown virus in the United States far exceeds this number.They put forward a series of suggestions, including the need to play the strength of grass -roots public health personnel, build a more flexible and advanced epidemic data collection system, allow the public to establish a sense of trust in public health and group actions, and so on.

Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Department of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, and director of the National Infectious Disease Medical Center, recently talked about Omikon that Omikona believed that it was a large influenza and lack of scientific basis. In fact, this mutant plantWill bite people.A country and region need a strong immune barrier and medical resources to resist the threat of Omikon.

The world after the popularity will not be the world before the Great Popularity, but we will coexist with the new crown virus disease and incorporate it into the world of daily risks.John Middot; Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the University of Hopkins University of Health and Safety, recently wrote an article.The world's differences in this big popularity stem from a two -point method of errors in risks to a certain extent: Some people seem to have no popularity, while the other person cannot control a world with any new risk.

(Intern reporter Cao Yuan also contributed to this article)