(Morning News) U.S. Political Risk Consulting Company Eurasian Group announced on Monday (January 3) that the world's top ten risk predictions in 2022, the possible failure of China's crown disease "clear zero" policy is considered to be the largest in the worldRisk, because this may exacerbate the interruption of global supply chains and the pressure of inflation.

The Voice of America reports, different from the outside world, Eurasia Group believes that in 2022 American -China relations will develop relatively smoothly, and Taiwan will not constitute potential risks.The report also said that because the United States and China will turn their focus to the country, the world further enters the era of G-Zero, a global leadership vacuum.

The Eurasian Group's report said that compared with European and American countries' coexistence with crown diseases, China's severe "clear zero" policy can cause the world's largest risk.

Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasian Group, pointed out in an interview with Bloomberg that with the emergence of high vaccine vaccination rates and effective treatment methods reduced the hospitalization rate and mortality, Europe, and the United States and other developed developmentsThe state's epidemic should have changed in the next few weeks, but China's situation is different.

He said: "The ability to coexist with crown disease is exactly the opposite of China's" clear zero "policy that is easy to spread but not fatal (the ability to coexist).But they will persist. This means that they will be more strictly implemented and blockade, and this will have a significant impact on their economy, and the effect will not be very good. Xi Jinping cannot retreat. "

BreyIn the silent saying: "Their vaccine is not effective, their infection rate is not high, and there are not many antibodies in the crowd. In 2022, they will continue to work hard, but their strategy is the best in the world in 2020. This yearIt will be the worst. "

Bremo and the chairman of the Eurasian Group Cliff Kupchaan wrote in the report that China's" zero tolerance "policy for crown diseases in ChinaNot only cannot control infection, it may also lead to a larger outbreak, which requires more severe blockade.In this way, it will lead to greater economic confusion and more national intervention.

The report believes that this state will continue to the nationwide to launch its own development of the messenger ribonucleic acid (MRNA) vaccine and additional agent, and China can only launch its own MRNA developed by the end of this year this year.vaccine.

Report saying that for the world, this means more supply chain interruption.They wrote: "Limit shipping, the outbreak of the epidemic, and the shortage of personnel, raw materials and equipment, will be worse due to China's" clearing zero "policy, which will reduce the supply of goods.Enterprises, they have no resources to book containers, let alone booking ships. "

They believe that supply restrictions will be faded in 2022, but the supply interruption of many industries will continue.Contract negotiations in major ports in the United States have increased difficulties.

Report saying that this also means that the world is larger and more continuous.The report said that high inflation will breed unequal to unequal, exacerbate economic insecurity and public dissatisfaction, and will continue to become a primary economic and political challenge.They pointed out that the central bank of the emerging market is being forced to raise interest rates to control inflation, while the developed market central banks turn to a tightening policy.

The report said that the clearance of crown disease in 2022 is almost impossible.In general, developing countries in 2022 will continue to be hit by the epidemic.The demand for additives in rich countries will hinder the popularization of effective vaccines.The new epidemic will slow down the economic growth of emerging markets and put more debt in the poor government.