Lin Yuan
Jiang Wanan, the grandson of Jiang Jingguo, announced on January 19 that he would not run for the mayor of Taipei. He was regarded as a shocking bomb, especially when the election in Taipei was unclear.Some people think that Jiang Wanan is a "timid war". The reason for not running for election should be that he can evaluate that even if he can win Ding Shouzhong in the Kuomintang primary election, it is difficult to win with the current mayor Ke Wenzhe (he will think that Ke Wenzhe's possibility of re -election in office will be appointedHigher).
Due to lack of confidence, Jiang Wanan would want to hold the legislator.This is his first legislative term. If he officially runs for Taipei mayor, he may face the pressure of resignation.And if he loses, it is more detrimental to the re -election legislators, and will be questioned by competitors to be dissatisfied with the term of office and go to the mayor.
The lack of confidence in the war should be one of the reasons why he does not run, but not all reasons.As far as the Kuomintang is concerned, although more people at the grassroots level support Jiang Wanan for election, dark blue represents Hong Xiuzhu and Yu Muming all poured "cold water".Hong Xiuzhu said at the end of last year that Jiang Wanan still needed to experience it.
Earlier, Yu Muming also said that he should not "sacrifice" young people and keep Jiang Wanan's step.At the same time, the new party chairman also expressed conditions to support Ke Wenzhe.Some deep blue people and the Kuomintang led by Wu Dunyi were reluctant to support Jiang Wanan, who might represent the party.
The Kuomintang is still the "Elderly Party". This was born in 1948 from the key Hong Xiuzhu, Wu Dunyi, and Zhan Qixian, who were running for the chairman of the Kuomintang last year, and Hao Longbin could be seen in 1952.If Jiang Wanan is running for or even elected mayor of Taipei, it may trigger the "generation alternate" effect within the party.Those who are in power in power may not be willing to see this situation, so it is difficult to support the 40 -year -old legislators unconditionally.
The former legislator Ding Shouzhong will not take the initiative to withdraw the election (he has participated in the party's primary election but lost), otherwise he will be completely marginalized in politics.Jiang Wanan and Ding Shouzhong's polls were close and failed to drive away from the latter.In this primary election, because Ding Shouzhong was the last battle of his political career, he should be relatively fierce. Even if Jiang Wanan could win, he may also be worried that he would have a bad impact on subsequent elections.
According to rumors, in order to deal with Jiang Wanan's election, Ding Shouzhong has prepared multiple sets of "script", and some methods may be drawn from outside the party in the future.In addition, even if Jiang Wanan wins, it is not doubt whether he can successfully integrate Ding Shouzhong's forces.
What about the attitude of Kuomintang Chairman Wu Dunyi?Judging from the position of the chairman of the company and even participating in the 2020 election, he needed the Kuomintang to win in Taipei City of "the top priority", and Jiang Wanan should be a candidate for his optimistic.However, Jiang Wanan's father, Jiang Xiaoyan, was discordant with Wu Dunyi, and his famous mouth pointed out that he did not support Jiang Wanan to play.In fact, Wu Dunyi was more intriguing about the true attitude of Jiang Wanan's election.As the chairman of the party, in order to seek justice, he should not favor a candidate.Later, when Wu Dunyi talked about Jiang Wanan announced that he would not run this, "I can't guarantee that nominated Jiang Wanan."
Jiang Wanan should be able to find that it is not easy for him to integrate the blue camp in Taipei. Even if the election is elected, the future is not flat.As for the Kuomintang, it may also be unfavorable to Jiang Wanan. According to rumors, some people from the Green Camp are collecting Jiang Wanan's "materials", including problems that he may exist during his lawyer in the United States.As for his background of the Jiang family, it is difficult to assert whether his opponent will be rendered in a special form.
Another point of view is that Jiang Wanan will not run this time in the next Taipei Mayor election.Some media in Taiwan pointed out that the reason for Jiang Wanan's refusal to fight was that after he evaluated the chance of victory, he was most likely to prepare for 2022 "(" Apple Daily ").However, if he refused to choose 2018 for the preparation of 2022, it may not be wise.
At present, the Democratic Progressive Party's governance has caused many controversy. The Kuomintang seems to have stopped falling back, but it is difficult to say that it is truly "bottoming out."At present, the greater possibility is that after the Kuomintang stepped out of a round of rebound, it will "bottom out" again.If the Kuomintang failed again in the 2018 election campaign, the party's property was frozen and the internal cracks have never failed.If you lose this year, the Kuomintang election in 2020 and 2022 will be difficult to be optimistic. Four years later, even if Jiang Wanan runs for the mayor of Taipei, will the chance of victory be higher?
It should also be pointed out that if Jiang Wanan aimed at 2022, the Kuomintang candidate could not win this year, and the DPP candidate could not be elected as the premise (after Jiang Wanan's withdrawal, the DPP launched the party candidate without the party's candidate instead of it."Ritual" the possibility of Ke Wenzhe increased).If the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party have launched candidates and the three parties compete, Ke Wenzhe's possibility of re -election will be greatly reduced. Whether the Kuomintang or the DPP candidates win, they will strive for re -election in 2022. Jiang Wanan will not be able to fight.
Even if Ke Wenzhe was able to re -election this year, when Jiang Wanan was running for the mayor in 2022, because Ke Wenzhe no longer played, the DPP will inevitably launch the party candidate.The Basic Blue Camp in Taipei in 2018 may still be slightly better, but it is difficult to say in 2022.In 2022, the Kuomintang may also be weaker than 2018, not stronger.
When the Kuomintang's future is uncertain, the correct attitude is to seize each opportunity and give up lightly.For example, before Cai Yingwen, before the 2016 election won, she lost Zhu Lilun when she ran for the mayor of New Taipei in 2010, and in 2012, she participated in the presidential election and lost to Ma Ying -jeou.Jiang Wanan should not be afraid of losing this election.
In addition, even if he did not win this year, the number of votes he received was definitely more than the Kuomintang candidate Lian Shengwen, which was quite controversial in 2014.He does not have to worry about his political career after being defeated. He will become very dim because of major frustration.Jiang Wanan did not run this time, but made people think that his willpower and strength should not be overestimated.Writer Wang Feng believes that he lacks "wolf nature". In fact, it is more precise that he lacks his will to win and win confidence.In addition, he lacks the sense of responsibility of overcoming difficulties and serving the party through running for the Kuomintang's trough.
What impact will Jiang Wanan refuse to run for election?Although after he announced, the Kuomintang may have other people to participate in competition, but it should be said that Ding Shouzhong is the most likely.In 2014, Ding Shouzhong was more capable of fighting with Ke Wenzhe than Lian Shengwen, but this year Ding Shouzhong was probably weaker than four years ago.In 2014 and 2016, the Kuomintang elections were defeated, and many members of the party were hit hard. Zhu Lilun, Hao Longbin, Hu Zhiqiang and others were unavoidable.
Ding Shouzhong was defeated in 2014 and then defeated in 2016. The DPP Wu Siyao defeated Ding Shouzhong, who was seeking re -election in the legislature election campaign.Although the environment was not good for the Kuomintang at that time, Ding Shouzhong himself was also created by making mistakes, and the impact has not been completely eliminated.Jiang Wanan won the first election of the legislators in "Politics against the wind", which can also be considered a test.
Even if Ding Shouzhong won the primary election in the Kuomintang this time, can he defeat Ke Wenzhe and the potential candidate of the DPP?It seems that it is difficult to optimistic.If the DPP launches Wu Siyao, the competition of the three three people in Ke, Ding, and Wu will be more interesting; if the DPP does not push candidates, Ding Zhan's possibility is difficult to overestimate.
If the Kuomintang was able to take advantage of the Taipei Mayor Election and even won, the whole situation would be "active" (the Taipei election will also affect the elections in other counties and cities, and then affect the 2020 election).But as Jiang Wanan announced that he would not run, the possibility of this situation has decreased.
The author is a doctor of history, scholar travel
Jiang Wanan should be able to find that it is not easy for him to integrate the blue camp in Taipei. Even if the election is elected, the future is not flat.As for the Kuomintang, it may also be unfavorable to Jiang Wanan. According to rumors, some people from the Green Camp are collecting Jiang Wanan's "materials", including problems that he may exist during his lawyer in the United States.As for his background of the Jiang family, it is difficult to assert whether his opponent will be rendered in a special form.
