After a brief falling to the contraction range in July, in August, the financial new China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) returned to the expansion range, showing that the supply and demand was improved.
According to Caixin.com, the August Caixin China Manufacturing Industry PMI was recorded 51.0, which was announced on Friday (September 1), a 1.8 percentage point from July and returned to the critical point.PMI usually uses 50 as a strong and weak boundary.More than 50 is considered to be expanded by the economy; below 50, it is considered that the economy is shrinking.
This trend is consistent with the manufacturing PMI published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday (August 31), the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.7 in August, which was higher than 0.4 percentage points in July. Although it was in the contraction range for five consecutive months, it has risen for three consecutive months.
From the perspective of the PMI split item index, the manufacturing supply and demand in August returned to the expansion range. The manufacturing production index and the new order index rebounded to the Rongku line.Driven by the improvement of the market conditions and the heating of sales, even if some enterprises have reduced the number of days of construction due to high temperature, the overall output still increases, the output and demand of consumer goods and investment product manufacturing industries has risen, and the output of intermediate categories is roughly the same.
However, the external demand is still weak. The new export order index in August has risen slightly in the contraction range, and the export demand of the three categories has declined.
The improvement of supply and demand has driven the improvement of the employment of the manufacturing industry. In August, the employment index in August rose to the expansion range for the first time in six months.The survey results show that the expansion plan of the enterprise has supported the recovery of labor in the month.
After a slight contraction in July, the manufacturing procurement activity in August also reproduced the expansion, but the raw material inventory index fell to the contraction range.Some interviewed manufacturers said that some raw materials are high, and the inventory is cautious. Some companies have said that the sales are relatively weak and they are unwilling to increase inventory.
The manufacturing entrepreneurs interviewed still remained optimistic about the growth of the next year, but the expected index of production and operation in August fell to the lowest in nearly 11 months.Some companies are still concerned about weak domestic and foreign market demand.
Wang Yan, a senior economist of Caixin Think Tank, said that in August, the prosperity of China's manufacturing industry improved. In addition to the poor exports, the supply, demand, and employment index were located in the expansion range, but internal demand and weak expectations were inside demand and weak expectations.The problem may form a negative cycle for a longer period of time, the uncertainty of overlay external demand, and the downward pressure on the economy may continue to increase.
He believes that stable expectations and increasing residential income are still the focus of the current policy.The situation of internal and external economic environment is becoming increasingly complicated, and the urgency and necessity of related support policies have further increased.
