Twelve provinces and cities in western China in the first quarter of this year (GDP) have been released in the near future. Among them, the economic growth rate of 10 provinces and cities is higher than the whole country.The situation has improved significantly.However, Guizhou, Sichuan, provinces and debts of the large population province, not only is far lower than the national level in the first quarter of this year, but also further expanded compared with the backward gap between last year.

The scholars of the interviewed by the scholars evaluated that the economic performance in the first quarter of this year showed that most of the western provinces and cities have gone out of the haze of crown disease, but Sichuan and Guizhou, which are developing at a high speed before the epidemic, are currently entering the slowdown of the pain period, and they are facing industrial transformation respectively.And lack of economic cycle challenges.

The statistical departments of the western provinces and municipalities in China announced in late April this year. The GDP data in the first quarter of this year was announced, of which 10 provinces and cities grew higher than the national level, and the leading range was 0.2 to 3.7 percentage points.Among them, Tibet, which ranked at the end of the western provinces and cities last year, and only increased by 1.1 % year -on -year. In the first March of this year, it increased by 8.2 % year -on -year.

Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other places, which have also been attacked by the epidemic last year, have also accelerated the pace of economic recovery.

Jiang Xue, a senior economist in Chongqing, analyzed in an interview with the United Morning Post that the economic performance of the first March of this year was generally better than the national level, showing that the western provinces and cities have basically come out of the haze of the crown disease.

Yao Shujie, a professor of economics at Chongqing University, pointed out that the western provinces and cities generally recover faster than the whole country, mainly because of the low foundation of development in the western region. In recent years, the continuous improvement of transportation infrastructure has also begun to highlight the results.Post -hair advantage.He pointed out that the accelerated transfer of the eastern industry has also prompted a higher growth rate of the western economy.

Sichuan and Guizhou's growth is behind the national horizontal gap expansion

However, the economic growth rate of Sichuan and Guizhou continued to be lower than the national level. In the first March of this year, it only increased by 3.8 % and 2.5 %, respectively, lower than the national level 0.7 percentage points and 2 percentage points.Compared with the national level of 0.1 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points in the national level of the two provinces of Sichuan and Guizhou last year, the backward range has been further expanded.

Jiang Xue analyzed that Guizhou has achieved high -speed growth through investment in infrastructure and the big data industry in the past few years, but has not formed an economic cycle.The economy has been dragged down in the three -year epidemic, which drives the economy to drive the current local debt serious. Not only is the pressure on debt repayment, but the proportion of debt is also difficult to make financial financing from the bank. "This kind of investment driver is difficult to sustain, and the economy is difficultIf you grow, the growth rate will decline. "

Jiang Xue believes that if the debt issue is suspended, Guizhou cannot effectively attract investment, and the economy is difficult to restart.At present, it is necessary to depend on how the central government has made a shot to resolve local debt, including the rescue plan that may introduce debt -to -equity swaps.

Yao Shujie also evaluated that debt must have a certain impact on Guizhou's economy, but I believe that the central government will introduce methods to help resolve debt.He pointed out that the Guizhou economy has developed high -speed in the past and has developed in succession, which has drove growth with infrastructure investment, but it is impossible to "always be the first". At present, it is facing transformation and upgrading. It must optimize the industrial structure and pay more attention to the investment effect.

Jiang Xue also judged that the road to recover in Guizhou will be more difficult. It must build an industrial system to produce more consumer products to meet market demand, so as to form a sustainable economic growth rate.

Scholar: Sichuan must be alert to Chengdu, one city of Chengdu

As for the province of the population in Sichuan, Jiang Xue analyzed that the province's economy is mainly agricultural, service industry, and commerce. The tertiary industry has been greatly affected by the three -year epidemic. Although the domestic tourism industry has begun to recover, the slowing business may be possibleIt must be restarted for a longer time.

He also pointed out that in recent years, Sichuan has tried to make up for industrial shortcomings through investment promotion in recent years, while improving the situation of small and medium -sized enterprises at the same time, but many investments are still planning to build factories and have not invested in production.The effect.

Jiang Xue took Chongqing adjacent to Sichuan as an example. As an example, Shancheng, as a major industrial town in the western industry, has long been supporting the economy for a long time.With the recovery of the market consumption in the epidemic, Chongqing can quickly mobilize production capacity to restart production, and the pace of recovery is faster, comparing with Sichuan.

Yao Shujie also evaluated that Sichuan's current manufacturing industry has shrunk, regional industry and other parts of the country are repeated, lack of high competitiveness. At the same time, they did not deploy strategic emerging industries in advance. Therefore, the current development is facing bottlenecks.

The provincial capital with a population of 20 million people has long been in the first city of Sichuan, and is seriously "blood -sucking" in other cities in the province.

Yao Shujie's research and judging that Sichuan's long -term resources are highly gathering, the development is relatively uneven, and the lack of powerful sub -centers.Once the development of the industrial transformation cycle in Chengdu has slowed down, the development of Sichuan may "be too late to shift", and the province's performance and dragging will be dragged down.

He believes that Sichuan must pay more attention to the balanced development: "If short -term resources are concentrated in a city (Chengdu), it may be good, but if the city can't move, there will be problems in the whole province."