The China Economic and Financial Outlook Report released by the Bank of China Research Institute is expected to increase by 4.1%in the first quarter of China, and the growth of GDP in the second quarter may be the highest in the year.
The Bank of China Research Institute posted the above report on the official website of China Bank on Monday (April 3).According to the report, in the first quarter of 2023, with the impact of the epidemic significantly fading, the stability of economic policies was deployed, the Chinese economy continued to recover, both ends of production and demand improved, employment and prices were generally stable, and market confidence and expectations improved significantly.The domestic demand recovery has slowed down the pressure to a certain extent, and the overall economic operation shows a stable recovery trend. It is expected that China's GDP will increase by about 4.1%in the first quarter.
The report pointed out that in the second quarter, the Chinese economy will fully enter the post -epidemic repair period. The consumption is expected to continue the better recovery momentum. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment will continue to grow rapidly, real estate investment will gradually stabilize, exports exportsThe growth rate is expected to build bottom repair, decrease or continue to narrow.In addition, the base in the same period in 2022 is low. It is expected that GDP will increase by about 7.6%in the second quarter, and the growth rate will increase by about 3.5 percentage points from the first quarter. It may be a year high.
According to the report, the Chinese real estate market has recovered, and the overall repair still takes time.In the first quarter of 2023, the policies between the supply and demand ends of the Chinese property market continued to work together, superimposed the macroeconomic recovery, and the real estate market was stabilizing.Residents are expected to continue to improve.On the one hand, the policy is encouraged to buy a house under the tone of "housing and live", and the scale of excess savings to the real estate industry is limited. On the other hand, residents still worry about delivery risks in the short term.
Report suggestions, continue the policy support of both supply and demand, and stabilize the foundation of real estate recovery.Continue to optimize the demand for the reasonable purchase of housing for residential departments due to the city's policy.Increase policy support for buying demand for home purchase in the first set, replacement, multi -child family, and high -level talents.Properly cancel unreasonable purchase restrictions, prices, and loan restrictions, and use more market -oriented methods.Expand the support of urban affordable leasing housing, and focus on solving the housing problems of young people in large cities and difficult groups in large cities.
The report pointed out that considering that the overall economic operation is still, it still takes time, and the orientation of China's economic policy growth will not change.China's second quarter policy interest rates have a high probability of maintaining unchanged.On the one hand, the current macroeconomic recovery has continued to recover, and the necessity of reducing interest rates has decreased.On the other hand, the foundation of China's economic recovery is not strong, and the inflation rate is low and there is no sign of significantly increased significantly. Therefore, the possibility of tightening monetary policy tightening.
Report suggestions that the current Chinese economy is in a stage of steady recovery. Financial policies must continue to make efforts to help the economy continue to rise.The risk incidents such as the closure of Silicon Valley (SVB) of Foreign Silicon Valley (SVB) continued to ferment. It is necessary to prevent its negative overflow effect on China through expected channels and capital flow channels, etc., and make corresponding policy plans to maintain financial stability.
