The honorary dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University and Lin Yifu, Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics, issued a post on Saturday (April 8) at the China Official Media Economic Daily that the Chinese economy still has great growth potentialAt the same time, he also emphasized that confidence is more important for economic growth than gold.In the future, economic policies need to enhance the confidence of corporate and investors, and on the other hand, they must also enhance consumers' confidence in income growth.
This article published in the front page of the Economic Daily pointedNew development concept.Innovation is the first driving force for development. From the perspective of development, China currently has three advantages in innovation.
First, the post -issuing advantage.As a developing country, in addition to primitive innovation, it also has the advantage of the introduction of digestion and absorption and innovation as a source of innovation.For more than 40 years of reform and opening up, one of the reasons for the rapid growth of China's economy has achieved a rapid growth of the miracle. One of the reasons is to use the post -development advantage for technological innovation, implement import substitution and export, this space is huge.
The second is the advantage of the overtaking.The new economy with digital production factor is in the ascendant. Its characteristics are that the new technology research and development cycle is short and the human capital investment is large.In the new economic field, China not only stands on the same starting line with developed countries, but also as a large country with a population of more than 1.4 billion people. It is strong in human capital, broad domestic markets, and complete industrial supporting.develop.This advantage is more unique and is not available in other countries during the catch -up stage.
Third is the advantage of the new national system.The problem of accelerating the evolution of the international pattern and being contained in the "stuck neck" is the difficulty faced when China uses the advantages of post -use.However, most of China's manufacturing industries are still in a relatively traditional field, and the possibility of being "stuck in the neck" is lower.In the field of high -tech, one is that technology is generally owned by multiple developed countries, and the other is that the research and development of new technologies requires a lot of investment. The large profit after breakthrough depends on how much the market is. China has a huge market size.The important decisive factor of obtaining profits after high -tech enterprises obtained a technological breakthrough.As for some technologies that may be "stuck in the neck", it can be detained through the advantages of the new national system.
Lin Yifu said in the article that in addition to these innovative advantages, China also has the advantage of population quality dividends.The most important thing is effective labor.Although China has entered a stage of aging population, the dividend of population quality has continued to grow with the continuous improvement of new labor education.In addition, the development of artificial intelligence will also reduce the challenge of the number of labor for economic growth.
At the same time, China also has a strong domestic market advantage.Based on purchasing power parity, China is already the world's largest market. Even if the market exchange rate is calculated, it is also the world's second largest market.Therefore, it can not only use the large domestic cycle to leverage the international cycle, but the considerable scale of the domestic cycle is enough to make the Chinese economy be able to calmly respond to external impact.
Lin Yifu pointed out that comprehensive, the Chinese economy still has great growth potential.But this is a conclusion from the analysis of the possibility of the supply side.In the implementation process, it is also necessary to consider achieving the problems of dual carbon targets, green development, narrowing areas and urban and rural gaps, taking care of vulnerable groups, and response to various "black swan" and "gray rhinos" at home and abroad.If you can make good use of the above advantages and solve these problems, it is entirely possible to achieve a stable economy at high speed every year.
Lin Yifu suggested that first, expansion of opening up is conducive to China and the world.From the perspective of China, the implementation of opening up to the outside world, making full use of the two domestic and international markets, is an important reason for giving a miracle to growth, and the key to the successful development of China's economy in the future.At the same time, China's opening and development is also an opportunity for other countries.Data show that since 2008, China has contributed to between 25 % and 30 % to the world's economic growth each year. If this contribution rate can be maintained, other countries will attach great importance to China for their own employment, social stability and development.In a large market, China will also obtain an international environment that is conducive to its own development.Specifically, we should further promote the stability and excellent structure of foreign trade, reasonably reduce the negative list of foreign investment access, implement the treatment of foreign national citizens at high standards, comprehensively optimize the business environment, connect high standards of international economic and trade rules, promote institutional openness, create openness to the abroadNew highland, and so on.In order to expand the opening of the domestic and international cycles, it is not only the need for the construction of a strong country and the rejuvenation of the nation, but also the best way to resolve external risks.
Second, strengthening cooperation is the only way.At present, there is still a small gap in the income level, labor productivity, and industrial structure and technical level of China and developed countries. At the same time, it also shows that China still has a lot of room for technological innovation and industrial upgrading.Innovation is the foundation of high -quality economic development. In this regard, China must not only start technical cooperation with other countries, but also strengthen international cooperation in terms of policy coordination, global governance, and green environmental protection, and develop mutual benefit and win -win development.
Third, boosting confidence needs to start from two aspects: supply and demand.When enterprises have insufficient confidence in economic growth, they are expected to weaken in the future, and investment will decline, bringing a reduction in supply, thereby impacting the supply chain and further conducting the employment situation.When personal confidence in economic growth, the expectations of employment and income decline, consumption and final demand will shrink significantly.It can be said that confidence is more important than gold for economic growth.In the future, economic policies need to enhance the confidence of corporate and investors, and on the other hand, they must also enhance consumers' confidence in income growth.
