Trump's rumors of Andrdquo; "withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO) Andrdquo; (file photo)
Adhering to Andrdquo; U.S. President Trump, who "abandoned the spirit of the contract and Andrdquo;, also shouted that he wanted to" retreat andrdquo;.Since July, Trump has said that and "withdraw from the World Trade Organization (WTO) Andrdquo; rumors.
Trump claims that Anda "The disadvantage of the United States in the WTO is very obvious. Although we have not intended to do anything now, if they are not kind to us, we will do something. Anandrdquo; Trump's WTO;It has been abandoned for a long time. Since taking office, Andrdquo; the dominated by the "abandonment spirit andrdquo;" Retirement group andrdquo; behavior one after another, this anti -construction president regardless of the disregard, will it be the terminator of the multilateral international trade mechanism?
The truth is true, but the truth is deficiency
After reaching a compromise intention to tariff issues in the United States and Europe, Japan and Europe signed the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) and the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) began to enter the substantive stage.With more close cooperation with Japan -Europe partners, we will be encircled in China in terms of trade.This argument obviously did not figure out the long -term contradictions of the United States, Japan and Europe on economic and trade issues.
Before exiting the negotiations, the United States was the largest economy in TPP. It was the participation of the United States that caused TPP to be upgraded to a real AND "Cross Pacific andrdquo; Economic and Trade Agreement, butEventually, after Trump determined that "the interests of the United States did not receive respecting Andrdquo; the United States did not bring a nostalgia with the TPP.
With reference to the TPP, the US -Europe -Europe Cross -Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) is also frozen because of the huge differences between the United States and Europe and the slow progress.The relationship between the three economic and trade entities in the United States and Europe and Japan is currently presenting the result of a balanced interest game of all parties. Just as molecules show gravity and exclusion between the molecules at the same time.If the United States wants to break away from the current trade mechanism framework of the United States, Japan, and Europe, the close economic and trade ties between the three will impact the US economy and contain the United States' unilateralism.
However, if you want to achieve closer cooperation on the current basis, their respective interests may be amplified.In particular, a series of policies after Trump took charge of the United States have stirred anti -globalization to recover from the European Union. The political rise of the right -wing conservative forces will definitely exclude the three efforts of the three.
The so -called Andrdquo; in fact, the so -called Andrdquo; in fact, it is actually a very simple and low -level negotiating tactic.
Trump admires the so -called extreme pressure. All are the conditions that the other party cannot accept, and create similar to the pressure of "ultimatum andrdquo; this to negotiate, forcing the negotiating objects to take US transactions as the best priority processingObject, then adopt Andrdquo; "step back into three steps andrdquo; and in the formal negotiation, threatening the opponent and" two harmful power to take its light andrdquo;Loose and compromise. The reason why this kind of trick has been tried and tested is that negotiating opponents such as Japan and Europe are not equivalent to the US hegemony in politics and economic status, not how high the negotiation strategy itself is.
If the United States does not hesitate to achieve transactions with intimidation, even if the EU, which is relatively strong in the negotiation status, cannot maintain internal unity, will still be ruled by the United States in a pair of negotiations and cannot form a unified position.
Similar revelation can also be found from the history of China: Qin extinguished the six nations, and even swept the vertical scanning.
The United States seems to be isolated, but with the current US hegemony status, in bilateral negotiations with any negotiation objects on any issue, the relative status of the United States can maintain an advantage.Can be fully respected by negotiating opponents.Compared with the compromise and inefficiency of multilateral mechanisms, Trump prefers bilateral consultation and exclude multilateral mechanism because of this.
From the perspective, the information currently issued by the United States "withdraw from the WTO Andrdquo; information is mainly to make public opinion in the United States by virtuous and manufacturing tension atmosphere to counter the restrictions on the world's arbitration mechanism of the world under the internal arbitration mechanism of the WTO. But Trump TrumpDuring his tenure, the intimidation of exiting the multilateral mechanism many times, so you cannot listen to the movement of the WTO organization.
A series of actions after Trump came to power showed that this person has deep prejudices and distrust of international cooperation, international mechanism and multilateral coordination.At the operation level of trade issues, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Council are directly led by the president. Legislative and judicial power has relatively weak checks and balances on these departments and presidents.
In the process of Trump's announcement of withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and TPP negotiations, both Congress and the Supreme Court failed to play a role.Restrictions, the United States withdrawn from the World Trade Organization during his term, and it is still practical.But in the end, Trump's decisive factor is to maximize the initiative and benefits of the United States in the current WTO multilateral trade mechanism.
If the United States can control the dominance of the United States and tilt the multilateral mechanism to the United States and Trump to the maximum, the United States will not rush to withdraw from the World Trade Organization.
It can be seen from a series of actions since the United States upgrade trade frictions that the United States still has enough strength to force the negotiating targets to yield to the interests of the United States.
Trump believes that multilateralism has formed a constraint on the United States 'exclusive and exclusive interests, which has nothing to do with whether the interests of the United States' interests.Therefore, the Trump administration uses Andrdquo; as a political slogan, it actually caters to the trend and demand of domestic anti -globalization in the United States. It has a very strong public opinion foundation. ThereforeThe political forces of free trade are contacted by Trump.
Funny and blessing
The soft power of the United States andMDASH; Andmdash; that is, international reputation, international system and international credit, is an AND "comparative advantage Andrdquo; unilateralism in the United States, which attracts international investment and talents to the United States.The hegemonic status has caused a substantial impact, but the irrationality of Trump's ruling will continue to show the derogation of the US international status.
In the post -war international order, whether it is the unprecedented prosperity of global economic and trade or dragged by the global financial crisis, whether it is benefited or a disaster, the United States is dominant and the biggest beneficiaries.Since Trump took over the trade sticks since he took office, he accused the international community of "unfair Andrdquo; is a very magical and funny picture of" unfairness andrdquo;It's not a disaster to extinguish.
On the contrary, due to the lack of the United States' constraints, the delayed world trade system reform may usher in a new turnaround.Andrd "Trump's impact on Andrdquo; the uncertainty brought to the world is not unparalleled. The results of multilateral negotiations are abundant, but the limitations are also very obvious. First of all, the efficiency ratio is low, and the multilateral negotiations are known as a marathon -style negotiation process.
In the fourth ministerial meeting held in the Catal's capital in November 2001, the WTO began a new round of multilateral trade negotiations.And the environment, and trade and development issues.
The negotiations were scheduled to be fully ended before January 1, 2005, but until the end of 2005At present, it seems that there is no substantial impact on hard power and hegemonic position, but the irrationality of Trump's ruling in power will continue to appear.
In the post -war international order, whether it is the unprecedented prosperity of global economic and trade or dragged by the global financial crisis, whether it is benefited or a disaster, the United States is dominant and the biggest beneficiaries.Since Trump took over the trade sticks since he took office, he accused the international community of "unfair Andrdquo; is a very magical and funny picture of" unfairness andrdquo;It's not a disaster to extinguish.
On the contrary, due to the lack of the United States' constraints, the delayed world trade system reform may usher in a new turnaround.Andrd "Trump's impact on Andrdquo; the uncertainty brought to the world is not unparalleled. The results of multilateral negotiations are abundant, but the limitations are also very obvious. First of all, the efficiency ratio is low, and the multilateral negotiations are known as a marathon -style negotiation process.
In the fourth ministerial meeting held in the Catal's capital in November 2001, the WTO began a new round of multilateral trade negotiations.And the environment, and trade and development issues.
The negotiations were scheduled to be fully ended before January 1, 2005, but the agreement was still not reached until the end of 2005. It was officially suspended under the approval of the World Trade Organization Prime Minister's Council on July 22, 2006.
During the period, all member states were transferred to the hard work, and a considerable number of political and economic resources were injected.Role; secondly, compromise replace consensus, and the negotiation idea of multilateral mechanisms is to seek the biggest convention of the interests of all parties. This often means that the interests of all parties must be reserved and compromised.
Especially in order to accommodate the process of consultation and maintain the atmosphere of the dialogue, in some multilateral negotiations, they have to take a step back to achieve compromise, resulting in the ultimate results of multilateral negotiations, and the form is greater than the content.In the end, the most criticized is that multilateral negotiations limited the advantages and scale benefits of trading powers, and also limited the space for SME trades to use trade relief measures to maintain their rights.Judging from the results, the multilateral mechanism has not effectively corrected the inequality in trade, but has encountered trade imbalances.
However, after Trump launched a trade war in the world, a series of free trade agreement negotiations that were delayed and shelved due to excessive dependence on the United States have restarted, and the pace has been accelerated under the external pressure of the United States, reaching a series of results.This is undoubtedly a major victory of free trade.
After the United States withdrew, Japan became the ears in TPP, eliminating the utilitarian restraint in the United States. The TPP negotiations finalized the agreement text at a unprecedented speed, and the member states were brought back to sign.After the European Union and Japan also became direct victims of American protectionism, the two sides quickly finalized the EPA agreement that greatly reduced tariffs and opened a new page of economic and trade cooperation.
After getting rid of the situation of kidnapping with the United States, the World Trade has re -entered the fast track of innovation and development.This is the Andrdquo;
that Trump brought to the international trade mechanism after waking up the world of trade bullying to the world.(The author works at the Japan Institute of Jilin Provincial Academy of Social Sciences)
